Before Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the presidential nominee, Mahoning Valley Democrats were rightfully concerned that the incumbent at the top of the ticket would drag down the rest of the party’s candidates on the Nov. 5 ballot.

Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate performance left Democrats, who were unenthusiastic about him before that, in a position where they knew if he remained the presidential candidate that he would definitely hurt other candidates by his mere presence.

Harris has infused energy into the party that it never would have experienced had Biden remained the Democratic presidential candidate.

Harris isn’t going to win Ohio, a former important swing state for decades.

But Harris isn’t going to lose the state as badly as Biden would have had he remained the nominee.

That brings us to Mahoning and Trumbull, two of the most reliable Democratic counties in the state going back to 1936 though Mahoning has often delivered higher percentages for the party’s candidates than Trumbull.

Prior to Donald Trump’s first appearance on the ballot in 2016, only two Republicans — Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 and Richard Nixon in 1972 — had ever won in either county during the prior 80 years.

Trump in 2016 beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by 6.2% in Trumbull County and lost Mahoning County by 3.3%.

Trump didn’t have coattails in 2016 as no other Republican in either county won.

But with Trump in office, some Republicans in the Valley won in 2018 — including Michael Rulli for a state Senate seat and Don Manning for an Ohio House seat.

Trump did even better in the 2020 election in the Valley against Biden.

He won Trumbull County by 10.6%, becoming the first Republican candidate to win there in two consecutive presidential elections since Herbert Hoover in 1928 and 1932.

Trump also won Mahoning by 1.9%.

For Valley Republicans, Trump on the 2020 ballot helped their candidates with some winning seats held for decades by Democrats.

While no Republican candidates won executive branch seats that year in Mahoning County, the margins of defeat were considerably smaller than they had been in previous years.

In 2022, Republicans did well, capturing the only two executive branch posts on the ballot in Trumbull — county commissioner and auditor. In Mahoning County, Republican Geno DiFabio, running for office for the first time, lost by only 130 votes, 0.14 of a percent, to incumbent Commissioner Carol Rimedio-Righetti, a Democrat who previously had been elected three times.

With Trump back on the ballot for the third consecutive presidential election, Republicans are looking to pick up a number of seats in both counties, particularly Trumbull.

Republicans already grabbed an elected seat in Mahoning County without a vote when Sheriff Jerry Greene changed his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican. Greene is running unopposed Nov. 5.

There will be several competitive races on the Nov. 5 ballot. I expect more Republicans to win in Trumbull County than in Mahoning, but some Mahoning Democratic incumbents are in trouble. Just 10 years ago that would have been a ridiculous statement.

Also, if Trump backers vote a straight Republican ballot, some lesser-known county offices will be won by the GOP.

Mahoning County Democratic Party Chairman Chris Anderson said voters were “yearning for a younger person with fresh ideas” and Harris is that presidential candidate.

“That’s not just Democrats excited about her candidacy, but many voters,” he said. “It’s enthusiasm from all voters who weren’t excited about either choice,” Trump or Biden. “We get Republicans who come to us and say, ‘The party has lost its way with Trump, and I’m looking for a home.'”

Mahoning County Republican Party Chairman Tom McCabe said there is more enthusiasm on the Democratic side with Harris than Biden.

But that’s because, he said, “The election was over with Biden on the ticket. Having more enthusiasm than you would for Biden is a very low bar to get over. He was not electable.”

Despite the Democratic change, McCabe said, “The enthusiasm on our side hasn’t waned at all. We haven’t seen a drop-off at all. We’re going through more yard signs and attracting more volunteers than four years ago.”

That, McCabe said, is because Trump has brought so many people to the Republican Party.

David Skolnick is a political writer for the Youngstown Vindicator and Warren Tribune-Chronicle, sister Ogden newspapers with the Columbiana Country newspapers. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @dskolnick.Contact David Skolnick by email at dskolnick@vindy.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @dskolnick.