Washington, DC got nearly 10 inches of snow recently. That was more than enough to shut down the nation’s capital. Thankfully, all of DC’s lobbyists and politicos stayed safe at home. Their local utility, Pepco–which relies on natural gas and coal for roughly half of its power generation–supplied the electricity needed to keep everyone warm.

But what about the rest of the country? Are they as safe as Washington?

Not necessarily.

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC)–which oversees the reliability and security of America’s bulk power system–believes the United States can make it safely through “normal” weather this winter. However, NERC says a Polar Vortex or an extended arctic blast could lead to electricity shortages at the worst possible time.

Consider this: America is using more power than ever for electric vehicles, data centers, and manufacturing operations. But meeting that demand has gotten tricky; NERC believes more than half of the U.S. could face blackouts over the next decade due to looming electricity shortfalls.

So what happens when a severe arctic blast is added to this tight mix? Extreme weather vastly drives up demand for electricity and heating fuel. NERC says the United States is unprepared for freezing temperatures that can threaten natural gas supplies and renewable energy systems.

The blunt truth is that the United States is running short on electricity. But at precisely the time when the nation needs more power, NERC says that the rapid retirement of America’s coal-fired power plants is making things worse.

That’s not the only challenge, though. According to NERC, natural gas production and delivery pipelines “remain vulnerable in extreme cold temperatures in many parts of North America.”

Texas experienced this during a deep freeze in 2021. Natural gas pipes and infrastructure froze, leading to eight days of power outages; more than 200 people died. Since then, Texas has worked to better insulate its natural gas system from extreme temperatures. But NERC finds that, outside of Texas, there’s little indication “upstream gas producers, gatherers, and processors have improved winterization of their operations.”

This is creating a perfect storm. America is running short on electricity due to the rapid retirement of its coal plants. But at the same time, many of the nation’s natural gas pipelines are at risk of freezing during extreme weather.

There’s an old saying–“Blame Washington.” That applies here, since the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has spent the past few years issuing rules to rapidly shut down America’s coal fleet. But these coal plants are America’s one remaining backstop. They can quickly ramp up during fierce winter storms to provide electricity when wind turbines and solar panels fail, or when gas pipelines freeze.

It’s good to know that the nation’s capital stayed safe and warm during a recent Polar Vortex. But much of the nation is on shakier ground.

It’s time to tell Washington: Return to policymaking that addresses soaring power demand. Before it’s too late, preserve the dispatchable power generation that coal plants provide during a deep freeze. Otherwise, we’re courting a winter disaster.

Terry Jarrett is an energy attorney and consultant who has served on both the board of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners and the Missouri Public Service Commission.